Issue date: 10/25/07 Section: News

Media Credit: Sean Jones Many emergency centers, such as the Hayward hospitals as well as many of Hayward's colleges lie close or on top of the Hayward fault, which may go off as early as next year, say some experts.

Very few Californians can wrap their heads around the concept of people living in places with names like: "Tornado Alley," or where they have "Hurricane Season."

Every year, like clockwork, those places are shown on the news with scenes of total destruction and grief which leads most of the people watching to ask themselves the same question: "Why don't these people just move?"

Indeed the question seems fair, given the timely manner and geographic specificity of these events. But few stop to remember that they live in "Earthquake Country," a fact that is becoming seemingly inevitable to discuss in recent years.

Although the Bay Area has experienced, and ultimately survived, its share of big quakes, what looms ahead may be something few people aside from geologists and seismologists, are expecting.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which is a scientific agency charged with the task of providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth and to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters.

According to recent data provided by the agency, the Bay Area has a 62 percent likelihood of experiencing an earthquake of a magnitude of 7 or greater before the year 2032.

More specifically, the report focuses on each of the faults that stretch through the Bay Area.

The Hayward fault -which happens to be less than 3.5 miles east of Chabot- has a probability of 27 percent of producing the next big quake, higher than any other Bay Area fault.
On Oct. 21, 1868, the Hayward fault line was host to the nations 12th deadliest quake in history.

At the time, the whole Bay Area was home to about 265,000 people, and the quake reportedly caused 30 deaths.

Recent USGS studies have approximated the quake at a magnitude of 7 on the Richter Scale.

A quake of similar magnitude now, would have much more disastrous results.

To put it into perspective, the fault, which runs 60 miles from San Pablo Bay all the way down to Warm Springs in Fremont, is now home to 2 million people who live directly on top of it, Tom Brocher, Senior Seismologist for the USGS said in a San Francisco Chronicle article.

Continued...

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